VAR Model
=========

Model the time series using [vector autoregression (VAR) model](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vector_autoregression).

**Inputs**

- Time series: Time series as output by [As Timeseries](as_timeseries.md) widget.

**Outputs**

- Time series model: The VAR model fitted to input time series.
- Forecast: The forecast time series.
- Fitted values: The values that the model was actually fitted to, equals to *original values - residuals*.
- Residuals: The errors the model made at each step.

Using this widget, you can model the time series using VAR model.

![](images/var-model-stamped.png)

1. Model's name. By default, the name is derived from the model and its parameters.
2. Desired model order (number of parameters).
3. If other than *None*, optimize the number of model parameters (up to the value selected in (2)) with the selected information criterion (one of: AIC, BIC, HQIC, FPE, or a mix thereof).
4. Choose this option to add additional "trend" columns to the data:
    - *Constant*: a single column of ones is added
    - *Constant and linear*: a column of ones and a column of linearly increasing numbers are added
    - *Constant, linear and quadratic*: an additional column of quadratics is added
5. Number of forecast steps the model should output, along with the desired confidence intervals values at each step.

Example
-------

![](images/line-chart-ex1.png)

#### See also

[ARIMA Model](arima.md), [Model Evaluation](model_evaluation.md)
