ARIMA Model
===========

Model the time series using [ARMA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autoregressive%E2%80%93moving-average_model), ARIMA, or ARIMAX model.

**Inputs**

- Time series: Time series as output by [As Timeseries](as_timeseries.md) widget.
- Exogenous data: Time series of additional independent variables that can be used in an ARIMAX model.

**Outputs**

- Time series model: The ARIMA model fitted to input time series.
- Forecast: The forecast time series.
- Fitted values: The values that the model was actually fitted to, equals to *original values - residuals*.
- Residuals: The errors the model made at each step.

Using this widget, you can model the time series with ARIMA model.

![](images/arima-model-stamped.png)

1. Model's name. By default, the name is derived from the model and its parameters.
2. ARIMA's [p, d, q parameters](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autoregressive_integrated_moving_average).
3. Use exogenous data. Using this option, you need to connect
   additional series on the *Exogenous data* input signal.
4. Number of forecast steps the model should output, along with the desired
   confidence intervals values at each step.

Example
-------

![](images/arima-model-ex1.png)

#### See also

[VAR Model](var.md), [Model Evaluation](model_evaluation.md)
