Market Analysis Reports

Silver has turned out to be the best-performing asset this year and many of my clients and partners have been asking me about its outlook.
 
Here are some interesting facts: - Silver prices rose 21% (average) to the highest since 2012. - ⁠Fourth consecutive deficit: 148.9Moz (15% of global supply). - ⁠Mine production: 819.7Moz (+0.9%), Recycling: 193.9Moz (+6%, 12-year high). - ⁠Industrial demand: record 680.5Moz (+4%), led by solar, EVs, electronics. - Jewelry +3% (India, Thailand), Silverware -2%, Photography -7%. - ⁠⁠Coin & bar demand -22% (5-year low), but India up 21%. - ⁠Silver ETPs saw first inflows since 2021 (+6.3% to 1,038Moz).
 
Its clear, the future of silver is no more just in jewellery boxes….
 
The silver market in 2025 is still expected to see another significant deficit, but the interesting part is where the demand is coming from. Demand from jewellery and silverware is slowing, while industries like green energy, electric vehicles, and AI are using more silver than ever.
 
As per world silver survey report; between 2021 and 2025, global silver shortages will cross 800 million ounces. That’s not just a market statistic, it’s a sign that silver is moving from being an luxury or ornamental metal to a strategic resource powering tomorrow’s economy.
 
To me it’s fascinating to see how a metal once just used for jewellery is now playing a key role in sustainability and technology.
 
Source: The World Silver Survey 2025

China didn’t win rare earths because it had better geology. It won because it spent 30 years building a fully integrated supply chain while everyone else assumed the market would sort itself out. That was the line that hit me reading this piece. the US is celebrating its first domestically made rare-earth magnet in 25 years, while China still controls more than 90 percent of global processing. Trump’s team is throwing everything at this, tariffs, alliances with Australia and Japan, deals in Ukraine and Pakistan, and the Pentagon taking a major stake in MP Materials to build a mine to magnet system for F-35 jets and drones. It all sounds bold, but the reality is slower and messier. Mines take a decade and processing plants can take just as long . And China can still move the market overnight by cutting prices or tightening export licences. Countries don’t lose supply chains at the mine. They lose them in the midstream. Whoever owns the refining owns the leverage. That’s where China is still decades ahead, and where the US, Australia, and everyone else will have to catch up fast if they want genuine security. For more of my takes on the resource industry sign up to my weekly newsletter www.kamoacap.com #Mining #Exploration #Resources #CapitalMarkets #Copper Sources: US Geological Survey Benchmark Mineral Intelligence The Guardian – “Inside Trump’s scramble to reduce US dependence on Chinese rare-earth metals”

Gold just hit an all-time high in the strongest currency in the world - Swiss francs. Here's why. #### 1. Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy The Fed has cut interest rates by a bumper 50 basis points. There are expectations of further reductions. This will likely lead to lower rates from other central banks, reducing the cost of carry, and increasing gold's realtive attractiveness. #### 2. Economic and Geopolitical Turmoil Gold prices have soared amid escalating global economic and geopolitical tensions. This includes conflicts in the Middle East, such as the Israel-Lebanon conflict, and uncertainties brought about by various geopolitical developments. Investors tend to flock to "safe haven" assets like gold during periods of instability, driving up its price. #### 3. Central Bank Purchases The record highs are supported by large-scale purchases by central banks around the world, including those in China and other emerging markets. #### 4. Decline in US Bond Yields A concurrent decline in US bond yields has also been a critical driver in gold's recent surge. Lower yields make bonds less attractive investments compared to gold, funneling more investment towards this precious metal. #### 5. Traders and Speculative Bidding Traders' speculative bidding has contributed significantly to gold's recent climb. As gold futures continue to hit repeated highs, it's clear that market sentiment is strong towards further upward movements. This speculative interest tends to add substantial upward pressure on prices as traders bid gold higher in anticipation of ongoing economic and geopolitical instability. #### 6. Government Debt Levels As governments continue to spend more than they collect in taxes there are growing concerns that the debt will have to be monetized at some point, leading tohigh inflation. #### 7. Safe-Haven Demand The intrinsic demand for gold as a safe haven cannot be ignored. Given the current uncertain economic climate, investors are increasingly turning to gold to protect their wealth. This year, gold has gained nearly 27%, positioning itself as one of the standout assets in the market. #### 8. Asset Allocation changes in portfolios Asset managers are are starting to add a little gold to portfolios, in order to reduce volatility and improve the risk-reward ratio. The chart below shows the price of gold in SWISS FRANCS over the last year. The previous all-time high in SWISS FRANCS is shown by the yellow line at the top. Yesterday we broke the previous all-time -high in Swiss Francs.

Saudi Arabia Is Reshaping the Rare-Earth Supply Chain: From Raw Material Supplier to a Global Processing Power 🔅 During the Crown Prince’s recent visit to Washington, attention was fixed on F‑35 discussions and the “Major Non‑NATO Ally” designation. 🔸 But beneath the headlines, a far more consequential shift occurred: Saudi Arabia signed an agreement that positions it at the heart of the rare-earth supply chain. 🔅 The Unseen Move: Processing, Not Just Mining 🔸 Ma’aden and MP Materials will establish a rare-earth separation and processing facility inside the Kingdom. ▪️ This type of facility has historically been concentrated in China — and is now coming to Riyadh under a Saudi-American industrial partnership. ▪️ The project aims to produce permanent magnets essential to defense, EVs, and advanced energy systems. 🔅 Strategic Positioning: The Kingdom Didn’t Chase the Deal — It Set the Terms 🔸 This agreement reflects years of quiet leverage-building, not a sudden opportunity: ▪️ Linking extraction to processing: No large-scale mining without full downstream localization. ▪️ Turning stability into a strategic asset: Amid global supply chain volatility, Saudi Arabia offered predictability. ▪️ Infrastructure first, investment second: Industrial zones like Ras Al‑Khair and the NIDLP backbone were already in place. ▪️ Geographic leverage: Bridging African and Asian resources with Eastern and Western markets. This wasn’t a late entry — it was a calculated delay. A form of sovereign leverage to secure downstream control. 🔅 Who Benefits? Not Just Ma’aden — An Entire Ecosystem Emerges This shift unlocks a wider investment opportunity: ▪️ Specialized logistics for critical materials ▪️ Industrial SMEs producing inputs and recycling metals ▪️ Localized R&D and technical training ▪️ Clean energy for high-load industrial zones ▪️ Green infrastructure and environmental services Those who understand the secondary layers of this transformation are already a decade ahead. 🔅 From Extraction to Pricing Power: Saudi Arabia’s New Industrial Trajectory With China dominating 85% of rare-earth processing and the West seeking diversification, Saudi Arabia is fast becoming a pivotal anchor in the realignment of global supply chains. It’s not about replacing China — but about breaking the monopoly on processing, and shifting where value is created. 🔅 From the Periphery to the Center — Deliberately Saudi Arabia isn’t entering the industrial race. It’s redefining its role within it. From vertical growth in traditional sectors to horizontal influence across strategic value chains. This isn’t just about factories. It’s about shaping the economic geography of the 21st century.

India's Critical Mineral Paradox: Sitting on a Goldmine While Importing at Premium Prices I’ve spent time building businesses across consumer tech, telecom, and industrial sectors. Reading Alkesh Kumar Sharma’s strategic analysis on critical minerals was a wake-up call: India is racing toward clean energy leadership while dangerously dependent on imports for the very minerals that make it possible. Here’s the link: https://lnkd.in/dpjKHMsb This isn't just policy. It's national security and controlling our destiny in the 21st century economy. The vulnerability: India is 100% dependent on imports for lithium, cobalt, and nickel, over 90% for Rare Earth Elements. China controls 60% of global REE production and 85% of processing. We're targeting 500 GW renewable energy and net zero by 2070, while handing veto power over our clean energy future to geopolitical competitors. Having run P&Ls across markets, I know 100% import dependence isn't a supply chain. It's a strategic chokepoint. But India is sitting on untapped wealth. Geological Survey identified 5.9 million tonnes of lithium in J&K, significant REE deposits in Odisha and Andhra Pradesh. Yet mining contributes just 2.5% to GDP versus 13.6% in Australia. We have only 1% of global REE processing capacity. The government launched the National Critical Minerals Mission with ₹34,300 crore and auctioned 20 mineral blocks. The 2023 Mines Act opened private exploration. But execution determines everything. The urban goldmine: India generates 4 million tonnes of e-waste annually, only 10% formally recycled. Inside? The same minerals we're importing at massive cost. Attero proves what's possible. This Noida-based deeptech company achieves over 98% extraction efficiency in recovering rare earths like neodymium, praseodymium, and dysprosium, the exact elements we currently import. With over 200 patents filed and strong profitability, Attero’s revenue crossed approximately ₹1,000 crore in FY25, growing more than 50% year-on-year. The company works with all leading auto and battery manufacturers and is now expanding capacity sixfold to process 3 lakh tonnes annually, backed by significant capital infusion across India, Poland, and the US. India banned black mass exports, powder from shredded batteries we exported as cheap scrap to China, Korea, Japan who sold it back at 15-20x the price. This ban forces domestic refining. Attero proves we have the technology. The window is closing. If we don't build resilient supply chains through domestic mining, processing, and recycling, we're building our clean energy future on someone else's foundation. We have deposits, waste streams, and companies like Attero proving Indian technology competes globally. What we need is execution speed. #CriticalMinerals #CleanEnergy #AtmanirbharBharat #Sustainability #India

Analyzing gold prices from a multi-currency perspective reveals interesting insights into the precious metal's value relative to its previous cycle highs - especially now given most are at recent highs after experiencing 2 fantastic years. Several key factors contribute to the variations in gold prices across different currency denominations. Exchange rate movements, inflation and monetary policy, economic stability and investor sentiment, market liquidity and access, and supply and demand dynamics all play a significant role in determining the relative price of gold in different currencies. Gold is primarily traded in U.S. dollars, and its price in other currencies can be heavily influenced by changes in exchange rates. If the dollar strengthens against other currencies, gold becomes more expensive in those other currencies, and vice versa. Different countries experience varying rates of inflation, which can affect the real buying power of their currencies and influence gold prices. Central banks may adjust monetary policies in response to inflation, which can impact interest rates and subsequently affect gold prices. In regions experiencing economic uncertainty or instability, investors may turn to gold as a safe haven asset, thereby driving up its price in that local currency. The ease of trading gold and accessing gold markets can also influence its price in different currencies. Global supply and demand for gold can affect its price worldwide, but local factors can also play a significant role. In conclusion, the relative price of gold in different currencies compared to its previous cycle highs is a complex interplay of global economic trends, local market conditions, and broader geopolitical factors. Understanding these factors is crucial for investors looking to make informed decisions about their investments in gold.

Gold surpassed US$4,000/oz for the first time last week and has continued its ascent. Given that gold is up by nearly 60% this year, investors want to know if there’s still support for this trend or if gold’s rally has run its course: https://lnkd.in/etqBVCXi Gold’s performance has been driven by increased investment demand in response to geoeconomic uncertainty, USD weakness, interest rate cut expectations, as well as stock and bond market risks. In addition, central banks continue to use gold to diversify their reserves. It seems that investors, large and small, are looking to build resilient portfolios. And while it’s tempting to think that there’s already too much hype, our analysis shows that, comparatively speaking, the gold investment market does not seem saturated compared to previous bull runs. If history serves as a guide, may economic conditions deteriorate, investment flows can significantly increase from here. Gold’s price surge does not come without challenges, of course, and it will likely temper consumer demand further. In addition, some investors may look to get partial profits from their gold position, leading to short-term volatility. But longer term, we believe that the structural shifts that the global economy and the gold market are facing will likely provide continued support for gold investment demand. #Gold #Milestone #Volatility World Gold Council

Rare-Earths: The New Oil — and the World’s Choke-Point 💥 70% of the planet’s rare-earth ore and 95% of its refining sit behind one border — an imbalance so sharp it turns a niche metal market into a systemic risk❗️ Key Takeaways from the article: 🔑 China’s outsized grip – ~70 % of mining and >95 % of refining capacity 🔑 “Balance-problem” bottleneck – high demand magnet metals (Nd, Pr) are tied to low value Ce/La, distorting supply economics 🔑 Supply-demand crunch ahead magnet elements could fall short within a decade, pressuring EVs, wind and defence tech. 🔑 Ion-adsorption clay (IAC) deposits rising – Brazil, Uganda & SE Asia can come online in 4-7 yrs, faster than hard-rock mines 🔑 Refining is the real chokepoint; most concentrates still ship back to China. Lynas, MP Materials & Neo Performance are early decentralisers 🔑 Tech is stretching scarce atoms – grain boundary diffusion cuts Dy/Tb use; magnet recycling & by-product recovery grow 🔑 Need for a coordinated response. The US-Japan-Australia initiatives frame rare earths as industrial and national security priorities Why the Finance World Should Care (my view based on the article) 💰 Loans get riskier: If rare-earth prices swing wildly, companies making EVs, wind turbines or fighter jets might struggle to repay. Banks need to “stress-test” those loans 💸 Fresh projects need cash: New mines, refineries and recycling plants will look for investors. Green bonds and other “sustainable” funding could offer solid returns 💵 We might see a Supply chain finance (SCF) renaissance – OEMs will push banks & fintechs to fund upstream miners and refiners to lock in flows 💴 New ways to hedge prices: Expect Wall Street to create futures and other contracts so companies can lock in a steady rare-earth price and protect against geopolitical flare-ups.m 💷 Local-processing boom: Governments may hand out tax breaks or set up special investment vehicles to build refineries at home; stock-market listings could follow 💰 ESG upside: Recycling and technologies that use fewer rare-earths tick the “green” box, letting lenders offer cheaper rates for hitting sustainability targets 🙌 Shout-out to my colleague Ilya Epikhin for a timely, incisive deep-dive that turns a niche metals story into a macro-risk wake-up call 👏 Full article: https://lnkd.in/dSdS7Hsz #RareEarths #SupplyChain #EVs #EnergyTransition #FinTech #RiskManagement #Geopolitics

Is this the most ignored signal in the metals market? Gold-Silver Ratio = Smart Money Signal The Gold/Silver Ratio tells us how many ounces of silver you need to buy one ounce of gold. Historically, it's averaged around 50–60. But look at this chart: Every time the ratio spikes above 100 (circled in red), a few things tend to follow: Silver outperforms massively in the months ahead Risk sentiment starts improving Capital flows shift toward industrial recovery Right now, we’re near that 100+ zone again. What does it mean? Silver might be undervalued relative to gold. A possible rotation in the market is brewing. History doesn’t repeat—but it often rhymes. If you're in wealth advisory, trading, or asset allocation—this is a chart you can’t ignore. Bookmark this. Revisit in 6 months. Let’s see who was watching. #gold #silver

Last year, India imported 53,000 tonnes of rare earth magnets from China China produces around ~90% of the world’s high-performance rare earth magnets which power satellites, EV motors, jet engines etc Although India holds the 3rd largest rare earth reserves globally - we contribute less than 1% of global output. Now, as China cracks down on rare earth exports (e.g. charging 60× the standard price for Samarium which is used in fighter jets) - it has a serious impact on India ⤵️ The response by our Govt is as follows: (1) Govt. of India has restricted India's only REE mining firm IREL’s exports to 1000 metric tonnes of rare earths (1/3rd of production) to Toyota in Japan by suspending a 13yr old agreement to safeguard domestic requirements (PS: we export because we don’t have the capacity to process) (2) Right now, the Govt is amending the Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Act, 1957 (MMDR Act) to allow mine owners to extract any minerals from their licensed mines (not just the minerals which they got the licensed for) (3) JVs: IREL will supply the raw materials to Hyderabad based Midwest Advanced Materials (MAM); it is set to become 1st private company to produce Neodymium (NdFeB) magnets within 6 months, with an initial capacity of 500 tonnes per year, scaling up to 5,000 tonnes by 2030. ➡️ Here are a few examples of companies responding to the REE crisis: (1) Ola Electric will be shipping ferrite motor EVs from October this year - Bhavish Aggarwal said: ”Rare earth-free motor is something we started developing more than a year back.” (2) Tata Motors (including JLR) is working on supplier diversification & component redesign; their CFO Balaji said "The learnings coming from the semiconductor crisis have meant that we have been off the blocks quite fast” (3) Like its peer Ola Electric, Ather Energy is also looking at ferrite based motors & also exploring partial assembly in China. Tarun Mehta said: “Unlike cars, trucks, or buses, our industry (2W EVs) can build motors without using heavy REE magnets.” The REE crisis isn’t a surprise for our industrial & political leaders - it was long known but perhaps overlooked due to the small economic cost of REEs. In FY25, India imported ₹1,750 crores worth of REE magnets from China - while this is small - IF this supply is cut off, it would have a crippling effect on our industrial, automotive, defense & electronics industries. Just because it is “small” - doesn’t mean it isn’t significant. My hope is that this shock (similar to the semiconductor one in 2022) will jolt decision makers into action. In response to the semis crisis - our Govt allocated ₹76,000 crore for the India Semiconductor Mission. I believe we will now emphasize Atmanirbhar Bharat for REEs as well! #india